Demographic Winter – what is this?
this is what happens when human populations are unbalanced with too few children being born, and elderly living longer.
1968 – “The Population Bomb” was published.
This convinced many
people that overpopulation
was inevitable & that
environmental degradation
& mass starvation would
result.
changed perception of family
Deciding to have children became an ethical decision, but “A population explosion wasn’t because human
beings suddenly started breeding like rabbits, it’s
because they finally stopped dying like flies”
– Nicholas Eberstadt, PhD – Economics, Harvard University
So where are we at now?
Replacement Fertility Rate is at 1.8.
What is Replacement
Fertility Rate? The average number of
children born per woman–
at which a population
replaces itself from one
generation to the next,
without migration.
wait, are there any consequences? “It’s hard to be a great power if your population is
shriveling”
– Economist Robert J. Samuelson
20% of the population is over 60.
By 2050 that will rise to 36%.
That means there will be two elderly for every child.
There will be a shortfall of workers.
Who will operate factories and farms in the future?
Who will develop the natural resources?
Who will support and care for a graying population?
How will health and pension systems be sustained?
Is there any fix?
Governments are now encouraging people to have more
children by offering economic incentives, but
Research has shown that prosperity seems to have an
inverse effect on fertility. So while not having enough
money may be a factor in a couple’s decision whether or not
to have a child, already having money seems to increase a
couple’s tendency to have fewer children.
That’s that.
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